Austin Is Still on the Move — And the Numbers Back It Up
OHA Market Update Series - Jan 13, 2026
National: As mortgage rates stabilize and inventory continues to favor buyers, 2026 is shaping up to be a market defined by leverage and negotiation — especially in Austin. Buyers who are prepared and informed have a rare opportunity, while sellers need thoughtful strategy to stand out.
Local: Austin continues to rank among the top U.S. cities for new residents while simultaneously leading in new home construction, signaling a market that’s growing — but also adapting. These trends are reshaping opportunities for buyers and sellers across Central Texas in 2026.
Intrigued? Keep reading.
(4 minute read)
Austin Area Real Estate & Community Update:
Market Trends, Local News, and Neighborhood Insights
The Data Confirms It: Austin Is Still One of America’s Most In-Demand Cities
If you’ve felt like Austin hasn’t slowed down one bit, you’re not imagining it.
Two recent reports confirm what we’re seeing every day on the ground: people are still moving here in large numbers, and builders are racing to keep up.
Austin ranked a top-3 destination for movers in 2025
According to U-Haul’s annual migration report, Austin ranked No. 3 nationally for the most people moving in during 2025 — up from No. 5 the previous two years. That’s out of more than 2.5 million one-way moves tracked across the U.S. and Canada.
Texas also reclaimed the No. 1 spot as the fastest-growing state, with more people entering the state than leaving it. Dallas and Houston took the top two metro spots, but Austin remains right there in the mix — and continues to be one of the most desirable places to land.
This aligns with what I hear constantly from clients relocating here: job changes, growing families, lifestyle shifts, or simply a desire to be somewhere that feels vibrant and livable.
Central Texas growth isn’t just Austin proper
It’s also worth noting that New Braunfels and Seguin landed on U-Haul’s list of top growth cities. That speaks to a broader Central Texas trend — people expanding outward in search of affordability, space, and flexibility while still staying connected to Austin.
Austin is also one of the top metros for new home construction
Population growth naturally leads to one big question: where is everyone going to live?
A separate report using Census Bureau and Zillow data found that the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos metro ranked No. 6 nationally for new residential permits in 2024, with more than 32,000 new units authorized.
Even more telling: when adjusted for size, Austin ranked No. 2 in the country for new housing units per 1,000 existing homes — just behind Raleigh, North Carolina.
In short: Austin isn’t just growing — it’s actively building to meet demand.
What this means for buyers and sellers right now
This combination of strong in-migration and increased housing supply creates a more nuanced market than we’ve seen in years past.
For buyers:
There are more options, especially with new construction
Builders are often offering incentives to help offset rates
Negotiation power looks different than it did a few years ago — in a good way
For sellers:
Demand is still there, particularly for well-priced, well-presented homes
Pricing and strategy matter more than ever
Homes that are turnkey or thoughtfully updated continue to perform well
The big takeaway
Austin’s growth story isn’t over — it’s just evolving.
People are still choosing this city and the surrounding region for work, lifestyle, and community. At the same time, increased construction is helping balance demand, which is healthier for everyone long-term.
If you’re thinking about buying, selling, or simply want to understand how these trends impact your specific situation, I’m always happy to talk it through. The data matters — but how it applies to you matters even more.
National Real Estate Update
Housing Trends, Interest Rates, and Market Forecasts
A Buyer’s Market Is Here — And It’s Not Going Anywhere (For Now)
As we head into 2026, one thing is becoming increasingly clear: buyers have the upper hand, and that dynamic isn’t expected to change anytime soon.
Mortgage rates dipped again in the final weeks of 2025, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.18%, right near the lowest point we saw all year. While that number may not feel “low” in a historical sense, the bigger story is stability. Rates have been holding in a narrow range for months, and most economists expect more of the same in the near term — no dramatic drops, but no sharp spikes either.
That kind of predictability matters. It allows buyers to plan, model payments, and make decisions without feeling like they’re chasing a moving target.
Why rates aren’t the whole story right now
With mortgage rates largely holding steady, the smartest buyers are looking beyond headlines and focusing on local market conditions. Inventory levels, days on market, price reductions, and how often homes are selling below asking price are far more telling indicators of opportunity.
And nationally, those signals are flashing bright green for buyers.
According to Redfin, there are currently 37% more sellers than buyers in the U.S. housing market — more than double the imbalance we saw this time last year. Sellers are competing for attention, and that competition is showing up in the form of price cuts, closing cost credits, interest rate buydowns, and flexible terms.
Austin stands out — even nationally
Austin continues to be an outlier, even within a buyer-friendly market. In November, Austin had 114% more sellers than buyers, making it the strongest buyer’s market in the country.
That doesn’t mean prices are collapsing — far from it. What it does mean is that buyers who are prepared, realistic, and well-advised have room to negotiate in ways that simply didn’t exist a few years ago.
We’re seeing:
Sellers open to concessions they would have never considered before
Homes sitting longer, allowing buyers to slow down and be selective
New construction offering meaningful incentives to move inventory
What about demand?
Mortgage applications dipped heading into the holidays, which is typical for December. But economists are forecasting modest growth in home sales in 2026, especially as affordability improves slightly and wage growth begins to outpace home price growth.
Translation: buyers who act while this imbalance exists may find themselves in a stronger position than those who wait for “perfect” conditions that may never arrive.
The bottom line
This market rewards strategy over speed.
Buyers don’t need to rush — but they do need to be informed. Sellers can still succeed — but pricing, presentation, and expectations matter more than ever. And for anyone sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dramatic rate drop, it’s worth remembering that negotiation power can be just as valuable as a lower interest rate.
If you’re considering buying or selling in Austin this year, the best move is understanding how these national trends translate locally — and how to use them to your advantage. I’m always happy to help make sense of that.
If you’re thinking about making a move in 2026 — or even just trying to understand where you stand — now is the time to have a real, numbers-driven conversation. I’m happy to walk through Austin-specific inventory, pricing trends, and negotiation opportunities so you can decide your next step with clarity and confidence.
Jennifer Carey
Realtor and Agent Success Manager at Open House Austin, real estate investor, and renovation enthusiast with Wimberley Airbnbs. She loves mid-century modern design, hiking Austin with her dog, yoga and pilates, and has been enjoying gardening at her new home in East Austin🎶✨
