OHA Market Update Series - Oct 9, 2025
National: The ongoing government shutdown hasn’t halted home sales yet, but if it continues, buyers and sellers could face loan delays, disrupted flood insurance coverage, and added uncertainty around mortgage rates. Staying flexible and informed will be key for anyone navigating a transaction during this period.
Local: Austin ISD has announced plans to consolidate and close several schools starting in 2026, sparking strong community feedback and questions about how the changes will affect families, neighborhoods, and equity across the district. We’ll be following the process closely and sharing updates to help families stay informed and engaged.
Intrigued? Keep reading.
(4 minute read)
National Real Estate Update
Housing Trends, Interest Rates, and Market Forecasts
What the Government Shutdown Means for Buyers & Sellers
This week’s partial government shutdown may feel like a Washington soap opera unfolding far from your front door. But the ripple effects can reach into real estate transactions in subtle — and sometimes not so subtle — ways. If you’re buying or selling (or thinking of doing so), here’s what I’m watching — and what you should too.
The Big Picture: It Depends on Duration
First, it’s important to acknowledge: the immediate market impact is muted. In the first few days of a shutdown, things run “business as usual” in many parts of the real estate world. But if this drags on, the risks grow.
Economists and industry watchers warn that prolonged uncertainty can slow momentum in an already sluggish housing market. So whether you’re a buyer or seller, your best move is to stay agile, informed, and realistic.
What Buyers Should Know
Mortgage Rates: Volatility Risk but No Panic Yet
At present, mortgage rates haven’t budged much. On October 1, the 30-year rate was pegged at 6.37% — virtually unchanged from prior days. That said, rates could become volatile. Investors may react to signs of economic weakness, or concerns about U.S. debt credit.
What this means for you: if you’re locking in a rate soon, watch daily rate moves closely. If you have some flexibility, a short-term wait might pay off — but there’s also risk rates bounce upward if confidence shakes.
Delays in Federal Data & Underwriting
One wrinkle: key economic reports — like jobs data — may be delayed because agencies can’t operate fully. The Fed uses that data to help guide its decisions. Less clarity could feed uncertainty in the bond and mortgage markets.
Also, loans tied to federal programs might see slower processing. Be prepared for potential delays, and have contingency buffer in timelines.
Flood Insurance — A Critical Wild Card
For buyers in flood-prone zones, this is especially thorny. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) authorization has lapsed under the shutdown.
You cannot buy new flood insurance policies while the program is suspended.
You cannot renew existing flood policies.
Yet, NFIP is essential to an estimated 1,360 home closings daily, or ~41,300 transactions a month.
So if your property requires flood insurance to close, that requirement may become a flashpoint. Some transactions may proceed without coverage (if parties agree), but that carries extra risk.
What Sellers Should Watch For
Buyer Demand May Wane
Uncertainty tends to make buyers more cautious. If the shutdown stretches, you may see fewer showings, more hesitation, and a drag on offers.
You’ll want to be realistic about how far demand can soften — pricing strategy becomes even more critical in a shaky environment.
Closing & Financing Timeline Risk
Even if you have a contract, delays upstream (in underwriting, flood insurance, etc.) can slow closing. That’s especially true if any part of the buyer’s financing hinges on federally connected programs.
Because of this, sellers should be generous in deadline buffers (inspection periods, financing contingencies) or be ready to renegotiate timing if delays crop up.
Local Markets Are Uneven
Some markets are more exposed than others. For example, the D.C. area is more vulnerable because so many households are federal employees or tied to government contracts.
In less government-dependent markets, you might see less price pressure (at least initially). But don’t count on insulation — the sentiment spillover can seep into most locales.
Some Practical Tips (For Both Buyers & Sellers)
Stay flexible. The unexpected is now part of the background noise.
Build in extra time for closing. Don’t assume every process will run on schedule.
Monitor mortgage rates daily. Use your lender as a sounding board — they’ll often see early signals.
If your deal requires flood insurance, consider alternative options. Document risks, get contingency language.
Communicate proactively. If you’re a seller, let buyers and agents know you’re aware of the risks. If you’re a buyer, ask sellers upfront whether they’re okay with potential timeline shifts.
OHA’s HOT TAKE:
A short shutdown likely won’t derail your real estate plans. But if this becomes a long, protracted standoff in D.C., we could see real drag on mortgage markets, loan processing, and buyer confidence.
Whether you're buying or selling, the smart move is to keep your eyes open, plan for delays, and don’t let worst-case fears force you into rushed decisions. Real estate is rarely about perfect timing; it’s about positioning and adaptability.
Austin Area Real Estate & Community Update:
Market Trends, Local News, and Neighborhood Insights
AISD’s School Consolidation Plans: What’s Happening and What It Means for Austin Families
Last week, Austin ISD shared plans to consolidate and close several schools starting in 2026 as part of an effort to manage costs and improve efficiency across the district. The news sparked a wave of emotions across the city—confusion, concern, and a lot of thoughtful questions about what this really means for our neighborhoods.
Here’s a breakdown of what’s going on, what the district has said so far, and how you can stay informed as decisions unfold.
What’s the plan?
AISD has laid out a multi-step process for deciding which schools could be affected:
Phase 1: Data Review.
Each school was scored using a “rubric” that looks at things like enrollment, building condition, and facility costs. Schools with lower scores were flagged for potential consolidation.Phase 2: Context and Community Input.
This phase adds more human factors—like neighborhood impact, student travel distance, and equity considerations—to the data before final decisions are made.
According to AISD’s draft proposal, some schools will merge or close, with others absorbing new attendance zones. For example, Zilker Elementary is currently proposed to stay open but absorb Becker Elementary’s boundary after Becker closes. Students currently enrolled at Zilker would be able to stay through 5th grade under a “grandfathering” plan.
What people are saying
The district says community feedback has been “thoughtful”—and that’s true. Parents, teachers, and neighborhood groups have shown up to meetings, asked hard questions, and pushed for transparency.
Still, a lot of families are worried. They’re asking:
What happens to our school’s identity and culture if we merge?
Will my child have to travel farther?
How will this affect equity and resources for families already struggling?
Local PTAs, including Zilker’s, have been working hard to get information out and give families a place to ask questions. The school board will continue reviewing community feedback before voting on the proposal in November.
Why it matters
School consolidations aren’t new, and they’re not unique to Austin—but they always hit close to home. Research shows that when done thoughtfully, consolidations can make schools more equitable and efficient. But when rushed or based only on facility data, they can also deepen inequalities and disrupt communities.
A school is more than just a building—it’s a hub for families, teachers, and neighbors. The challenge is figuring out how to manage growth, budgets, and equity without losing the heart of what makes each school special.
OHA’S HOT TAKE:
We’ll be keeping a close eye on AISD’s process and sharing updates, community meetings, and opportunities to get involved as things move forward.
If you want to stay informed, hear what families across Austin are saying, and know how these changes could impact your neighborhood—follow along with us here. Together, we can make sure Austin’s school decisions reflect the values of the communities they serve.
Jennifer Carey
Realtor and Agent Success Manager at Open House Austin, real estate investor, and renovation enthusiast with Wimberley Airbnbs. She loves mid-century modern design, hiking Austin with her dogs, yoga and pilates, and has been enjoying gardening at her new home in East Austin🎶✨
