OHA Market Update Series - Aug 14, 2025
National: The Fed is widely expected to cut rates in September after July’s inflation held steady at 2.7%, slightly cooler than forecasts. While mortgage rates have already dipped to 6.63%, further drops will depend on upcoming inflation and jobs data.
Local: If your home or business was damaged in the July 2025 storms and flooding, you may qualify for a temporary property tax exemption through the Travis Central Appraisal District. Applications are due by October 20, 2025, and eligibility requires at least 15% damage to the property’s improvement value.
Intrigued? Keep reading.
(4 minute read)
National Real Estate Update
Housing Trends, Interest Rates, and Market Forecasts
Fed Rate Cut More Likely — What This Means for Mortgage Rates
July’s inflation numbers are in, and the takeaway is pretty clear: the odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September just went way up.
Inflation held steady at 2.7% last month compared to a year ago — exactly what we saw in June — despite concerns that new tariffs would push prices higher. This was a little cooler than economists expected, and now financial markets are predicting a 94% chance the Fed will lower its benchmark rate by a quarter point on September 17.
What does this mean for mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates tend to react to what the Fed might do rather than what they’ve already done. That’s why we’ve already seen a bit of relief — last week, the average 30-year mortgage rate dipped to 6.63%, a four-month low. This drop was fueled partly by a big revision to recent employment data showing the job market isn’t as strong as it seemed.
If inflation cools further and job growth softens before the Fed meets, we could see mortgage rates ease even more. But here’s the catch — a Fed cut doesn’t guarantee cheaper borrowing. Rates are also influenced by 10-year Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and how the bond market reacts. If inflation starts to heat up again, that could keep mortgage rates higher for longer.
Why Homeowners and Buyers should care:
Buyers: Lower rates can improve your purchasing power — but they can also bring more buyers into the market, which means more competition.
Sellers: Easing rates often encourage move-up buyers and first-time buyers who’ve been waiting for a break in affordability.
Refinancers: If rates drop further this fall, it could be worth running the numbers on a refinance.
OHA’s HOT TAKE:
We’re in a “wait and see” moment. The next round of inflation and jobs data will be critical in determining where mortgage rates go from here. Even small rate changes can make a big difference in your monthly payment, so if you’ve been thinking about buying or refinancing, this is the time to start running the numbers and watching the market closely.
Austin Area Real Estate & Community Update:
Market Trends, Local News, and Neighborhood Insights
Temporary Property Tax Relief for July 2025 Storm & Flood Damage
If your home or business was damaged in the severe storms and flooding we experienced in July 2025, you may qualify for a temporary disaster-related property tax exemption. This is a way for the state to provide short-term tax relief while you work on repairs and recovery.
Under Tax Code Section 11.35, the chief appraiser can grant a temporary exemption if your property is in a state-declared disaster area and the damage totals at least 15% of your property’s improvement value (this refers to structures like your home or buildings, not landscaping or trees).
How the exemption works:
The appraisal district will assess the level of damage to your property and apply a rating.
They then calculate your exemption by multiplying your improvement value (after the rating) by the portion of the year remaining after the governor’s disaster declaration.
The exemption lasts until your property is reappraised.
💡 Tip: The Travis Central Appraisal District has a Disaster Exemption Estimate Calculator you can use to get an idea of what your relief might look like. It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a helpful starting point.
How to apply:
Fill out the official Temporary Disaster Exemption Application.
Return it to Travis Central Appraisal District:
By mail: P.O. Box 149012, Austin, TX 78714-9012
In person: 850 East Anderson Lane
Online: Submit directly through their website
Deadline: All applications for the July 2025 storms and floods must be submitted by Monday, October 20, 2025.
If you or someone you know sustained major property damage from these storms, this exemption could help ease some of the financial strain. The process isn’t complicated, and getting your application in on time is key.
Jennifer Carey
Realtor and Agent Success Manager at Open House Austin, real estate investor, and renovation enthusiast with Wimberley Airbnbs. She loves mid-century modern design, hiking Austin with her dogs, yoga and pilates, and has been enjoying gardening at her new home in East Austin🎶✨
